The Sandeep Unnithan Show

Feat. Major General Akash Kaushik, Assistant Chief, Integrated Defence Staff (Transformation)

Sandeep Unnithan: Hello and welcome to the Sandeep Unnithan show, your weekly dose of defence, geopolitics and much more. Today, I am privileged to have with us here at the Chakra studios, Major General Akash Kaushik. Major General Kaushik is Assistant Chief of Integrated Defence Staff, ASIDS. He handles transformation in the office of the Chief of Defence Staff. Major General Kaushik is a serving officer in the Indian Army, of course, but he is here to talk about something completely different. He's here to talk about a subject that affects all of us, and that has to do with India's water security. It's the topic of a new book that he's written, and I'm going to be asking him about why India's water security is front and centre in our national debate today. General Kaushik, welcome to my show.

Major General Akash Kaushik :  Thank you very much, Sandeep. It's a pleasure to be here.

Sandeep Unnithan: General Kaushik, we are going to be talking about something very different from your current remit of responsibilities, and that has to do with your new book. I've been reading it, and it's fascinating what you've put in there. Very different from what one would expect a serving army officer to write on, but something so fundamental in the way that it affects every single Indian, 1.4 billion Indians, and that is water security. So, what drew you to writing a book on water security?

Major General Akash Kaushik :  Interesting question, Sandeep. You know, I'm an infantry officer. So out of my 37 years, I spent about 20 years in inhospitable or unhospitable places. And most of the military people will tell you, one of our fundamental worries used to be about water, posts that we occupy are on lines of control or in deserts or in Ladakh. Water is a big concern because there's no water. You know, all our operations, what we plan or do, one of the biggest logistics concerns is how we're going to get the water to the people. And then this was always lurking in the back of my mind, but somewhere down in about 2010, one of your India Today people had done a report on the drought in Maharashtra. So, they featured a photograph, and I think you see it in the centre of the book. So, I got inspired by it and read about it. The photograph image was a well where hundreds of pipes were coming out, and a lot of people were pulling out water. And it was just chaotic and very sad. I, it intrigued me, asked to read about it. And that lurking fear made me research a little more. And every time I researched, I found the gravity of the situation. So, in 2010, when I was doing my high command course, part of the high command course was to do an MPhil degree, and part of the degree was to write a thesis. So, I chose water security, and my late father, who is no more, but he said it's a great subject. He retired as a lieutenant general in the army, and he encouraged me greatly. He said it's a beautiful subject to write upon. And so, the research began. And then the rest is history. I transitioned from an MPhil, then went to do another MPhil in NDC and then registered myself for a doctorate in the same subject in defence and strategic studies and water security. And the book is a result of the thesis that I wrote for my doctorate. I was also, I should quote here, a lot of help from some of my colleagues, especially Lieutenant General Akshat, who actually, should I say, he prodded me into writing this book. He is himself a prolific writer. And when I asked him how he went about it, he said it's not that difficult. It was. But we managed to, I mean, he helped me a lot. And with the St. Joe's partnership to give me some researchers to do some updation of the book, we could take this book up.

Sandeep Unnithan: Fascinating story. And I must tell you that the story that you mentioned was written by a senior colleague of mine, Shankar Iyer.

Major General Akash Kaushik :  Yeah, that's right. Shankar Iyer.

Sandeep Unnithan: So, he was my bureau chief in the India Today office in Mumbai many years back. And that remains one of his greatest cover stories. In fact, he's one of India's most renowned politico-economic writers. He writes on the political economy, and he's done some incredible stories. He'd be happy to know that he inspired you to write this book.

Major General Akash Kaushik :  Yeah, that's right. That photograph that he published. That really got me thinking, why are we not talking about it?

Sandeep Unnithan: But, you know, there are other reasons why we're talking about water in 2026, General Kaushik, and that has to do with the IWT, the Industrial Water Treaty, where just yesterday you saw the spokesperson of the MEA saying that the IWT remains held in abeyance. We've suspended it till Pakistan complies and stops supporting terrorism. How do you see this in the light of what you've written, in the sense that this is the use of a weapon to ensure, is this a use of water to ensure compliance from your adversaries?

Major General Akash Kaushik : I'll just take you back a little bit. You know, the underlying reason for this strife with Pakistan and Pakistan's dream to occupy Kashmir. Yes, 71, we created Bangladesh. But, you know, a lot of people don't know General Musharraf, who was later the president. When he was doing his NDC course in the UK, he wrote a thesis. And it's not available online now. It used to be. I think the Pakistanis got shot.

Sandeep Unnithan: It's been taken off.

Major General Akash Kaushik : I read that thesis. So, in the thesis, he had argued that the economic survival of Pakistan is related to its waters. Its waters are headed in J&K, and J&K has to be taken by Pakistan at any cost.

Sandeep Unnithan: Was it the first time that you saw a Pakistan military official talking about water as a national resource, and therefore it had to be?

Major General Akash Kaushik : Yeah, that was the first time I saw. And thereafter, you know, water all over the world has been used and throughout history has been used to enforce your opinion. It's always been used. Wherever you could, it's been done in ancient times by the Greeks, by the Sumerians, by America in the Middle Ages, by many British, sorry, European empires. And we've seen it happening all around us, where, I mean, in North India, denying or giving water could result in major strife between tribes or peoples, etc. So, yes, it is a tool to enforce opinion. However, one must look at the IWT in totality. The IWT is really old. It was 1960, and it was signed. And the realities of the area were very different then and very different now. The treaty, per se, was more biased towards Pakistan. It was a new country. And, you know, he's a new kid on the block. Everybody who says, let's give him a little more. So, something like 78 to 80 per cent of the waters go to Pakistan. We only get 20 to 25 per cent. And in addition to that, whatever is guaranteed to us, for example, on the Western rivers, that is the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, we have the right to store 3.6-million-acre feet of water.

Sandeep Unnithan: Sorry to interrupt you, General Kaushik, but is this the most unequal water treaty in the world?

Major General Akash Kaushik : Yes, it is one of the most unequal water treaties in the world. Nowhere else has water been siphoned in this manner. That is 80-20 or 70-30. Normally, it ranges somewhere around the 50s, 45-55, 40-60. But this is an 80-20 treaty, which is, well, it's, but it stood its time. I must say that from both sides, from our side, more from our side, we've been more than willing to give to Pakistan what is their share of water, an equal share of water. In fact, we didn't go ahead with building the capability. In fact, we'd be surprised to know that we are allowed to build 3.6-million-acre feet of water. And for your viewers, a million-acre feet is a hell of a lot of water. It's like a million acres standing with one that may be the whole state of Punjab or something like that standing with one foot of water. But we haven't built that capacity. In the southern rivers, that is the eastern rivers, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas, a similar amount of water is allowed to go through the Harike Barrage into Pakistan. We haven't upgraded our facility. We've never looked at it from the point of view of denying water to Pakistan. But I think too much water has flown under the bridge, if I may use that phrase. And so now the government's holding an abeyance to enforce opinion. Well, I think you must use every tool that you have to guarantee your own safety and security. And this is a tool that we can use, and everybody else is doing it. And why shouldn't we also be on the same thing?

Sandeep Unnithan: Do you foresee this becoming a flashpoint between India and Pakistan in the sense that the military, which runs the deep state, which has all these so-called non-state actors, which are actually extensions of the Pakistan state, could target water infrastructure in India based on this? Do you anticipate that?

Major General Akash Kaushik : I don't think they will target water infrastructure in India because then they're downstream. The effects will be very, very heavy on Pakistan. We must understand Pakistan, as we were discussing before the show, Pakistan is already in the status of a water-scarce state. They're below 1,000 cubic meters per person. And it's getting worse. Their population is increasing faster than ours. Their demand for grains is going to increase by about 200 million tons in the next 20 years, which they will have to import or grow. Water is being reduced because of climate change and usage or poor usage in Pakistan. It's going to cause a lot of strife inside Pakistan. Punjab and Sindh fight over the waters of the Indus River. It's not gone to war. Will this be a cause for war? In the immediate future, maybe not. It's an underlying cause right now. But as climate change hits us fully in 10 to 12 years, our requirements grow. Pakistan's requirements grow. It could become a major flashpoint. Whether we allow it to become or how do we manage? Both countries need to sit down and manage this resource more holistically. So that it doesn't result in nobody wants a war. We don't want a war. But if it comes to it, we will fight for our rights. So, I feel it could lead to a probable flashpoint, but not in the immediate future.

Sandeep Unnithan: You know, coming back to India now, General Kaushik, your book is filled with facts. In fact, there are a lot of facts there which should cause us a lot of alarm. Especially since we're moving from a water-abundant country to a water-scarce country. What are the big numbers in the book which you think Indian policymakers should look at very seriously?

Major General Akash Kaushik : So, first alarm is 1950, we started with the availability of water per capita at 5000 cubic meters per person. Right. By 2021, we are down to 1400 cubic meters. So, 1700 meters is the mark where we say the water, you become water scarce or water deprived. There's an index called the Falken Mark Index. Mr Falken, Dr Falken Mark was the guy who invented this thing. And from 1700 cubic meters per person, as you start going lower to 1500 to 1000 and below, you become water scarce, absolute water scarcity, which causes tremendous internal strife. So firstly, we are down to 1400. In 2030, we'll be 1387. By 2050, we're going to be 1100 if we don't do something about it. That's one alarm. Second alarm. You know, we've all looked at Punjab as the land of five rivers. They extract, as an example, they extract 168% of the groundwater more than the rechargeable capacity. So, the water table is dropping in Punjab faster than anybody else. By 2039, the average water availability of groundwater in Punjab is going to be more than 300 meters. That's 1100 feet. Unpumpable, economically unpumpable. Therefore, we have 13 years left for the survival of the agriculture of Punjab. I mean, surface water will keep doing some agriculture, but the majority of the agriculture, around 64-65%, is done through subsurface water. That is not going to be available. And you're going to see the food bowl of our country shrivel into nothing. The storage capacity. India has a storage capacity of 225 cubic meters per person. We've not built the dam. And you know, the old lakes, ponds, talabs of erstwhile villages have all gone. Taken over by real estate, taken over by development. So, the aggregate storage capacity of ours is 225 cubic meters per person. China has 2200. The USA has 5000 meters per person. So, you don't have the storage. 70% of all our surface water is undrinkable. I mean, you must be remembering, we're both a similar age. When in younger days, we used to go out for a picnic, your mom or your aunt would take the water from a flowing stream, and you could drink it. You can't do it. You guys did a study on the Yamuna. If you drink Yamuna, you'd probably die.  It's that bad. All our rivers are that bad. And you know, nobody wants to look at it. Like in every city, Delhi, for example, we have 15 m k of pipeline to supply fresh water. 40% of the water leaks out. CAG did a report on DJB and the audit. So, DJB didn't provide them with the details for 13 years. And when they did for one year, 2017 to 18, they found a discrepancy in that one year in the water supply of 6,500 crores. So, every city is the same. I mean, I'm not saying Delhi is good or bad or worse. Every city. The infrastructure has been upgraded. And, you know, urbanisation. Look at it. We are 37% of our population is in urban centres. 45% of this population has no connection to sanitation or water. And by 2050, we'll be 68% of us will be urbanised. I mean, that's a billion people in cities. We won't have the water to feed our cities. We won't have the means to take out our sewage. And we don't act now. We don't invest now. Many pandemics, urban pandemics, we are looking at in the future. I mean, just as an example, we have the connected people to the sewage. We produce 72,000 million litres of sewage every day in India. 52,000 of it is untreated. And when you become 68% urbanized, you'll be producing 144,000 million litres per day. 100,000 million litres. More than what your total precision rate will be dumped in your rivers, canals, nalas or urban areas. We are heading for trouble. I think policymakers need to look at these large figures and large numbers and start acting now. Because it'll take you. It's a capacity-intensive work. It doesn't happen in one day or one month. It takes years to make these capacities. Even if you make spare capacities, they're going to get filled up. I think Indian policymakers, governments, state and national need to look at this. They are. It's not as if they are not. But I think more seriously needs to be looked at.

Sandeep Unnithan: Why aren't we looking at it more seriously, General Kaushik? The figures that you mentioned are alarming. Your book is actually a wake-up call. And I would advise everyone there who's interested in water security and, you know, affecting national security, of course, but affecting our urban and rural populations as well, to study this book. The fact is, why haven't we woken up to this reality yet?

Major General Akash Kaushik : Sometimes it surprises me, too. We are the we are venerated as the land of these secret rivers. We've got an abundance of rainfall; 4000 billion cubic meters of rainfall fall in India every year. But we've held our rivers as holy. I mean, the Ganges is the holiest river. It's also the dirtiest river. I don't know why, as a population, we haven't woken up to this fact. The governments, I mean, the governments make plans, great plans. Execution is very faulty. We are in a forever cycle of build, neglect, build, neglect, build, neglect. So, you create a dam, you don't silt it, desilt it, sorry. On papers you desilt it, but it's not being desilted. I mean, how can you have in a city like Delhi a large percentage of the water, 40% of the fresh water, just leaking out of pipelines? So, nobody wants to. So, you know, we want to create water assets. Nobody wants to manage it. We have very few people who graduate in water, sanitation, irrigation, and hydropower. We don't have a university dedicated to a country like ours. I think we need to have five universities, one for the east, one for central India, one for western or northern India, one for southern India and graduates from these universities learning about irrigation. Nobody studies at a graduate sanitation. It's so important, you know, hydropower, irrigation. So if you were to have graduates coming out and ensure that these are the guys with these essential qualities will only be picked up for the jobs that deal with it. Today, anybody can go into a water department. Our water departments, our irrigation departments, aren't collecting enough revenue even to sustain their own pace. What will they do to repair the canals? So, I think somewhere we just lost the plot. I think the current dispensation has got a sense of it. You see a lot of policies coming out. What they need is to enforce these policies right down to the last man. And that will take some doing. They have task forces at senior levels. I think taking it down to the state levels and educating the people. More important is to educate the people that, look, we are in for trouble. We have become water scarce before we became, you know, a plentiful nation. We are not a rich economy, but we are water-scarce already. So, if you want to go to the future, if you don't have this resource sorted out, I'm sorry, I don't think our economy will reach where we want to reach without this resource being tackled. It's the most important resource that we have.

Sandeep Unnithan: Absolutely. It's so basic. It's such a fundamental requirement for the survival of humanity itself. And, you know, I want to ask you this, General Kaushik, about the fact that there is interlinking of rivers that the government has begun. As an expert who studied this topic extensively, you have a PhD in this. What is your understanding of the interlinking project? How effective will that be in solving our water problem?

Major General Akash Kaushik : So, Dr KL Rao, who was our water minister in 1970, came up with a plan to link some of the northern and southern rivers. Again, it was studied and again shelved because of the cost. The cost at that time was around 8000 crores, right, to do the same. And then it's held in abeyance for a long-time till in 1999, when the current dispensation came for the first time. They revitalised that plan. But because of our political hierarchy, if I may use the word, when you change a government, we shelve the previous government's plan. So, it kept shelving in and out, in and out, studies going on till 2013. And it was revived by the current dispensation in 2014, where studies started happening and feasibility studies, DPRs, etc., etc. Just for your viewers, the interlinking plan aims to link 14 links. It's got two contexts, that is, the Himalayan rivers and the peninsular rivers. So, they're making 14 links in the Himalayan rivers, 16 links in the peninsular rivers. So, as you're aware, in our country, it's abundant with rain in certain places and 200 kms away, there may be a drought. So, if you could bridge this gap, technically speaking, you would not waste this water, and you could feed other people. So, they plan to make about 15,000 kms of canals. It will give us something like 40,000 megawatts of hydropower, which we urgently need. It will give more than 10 lakh jobs. It will increase the economy because the command area, we need 450 million tons of grain in the next 30 years, additional, not additional, total. And we need another 60 million hectares of land to be made arable. This will solve that problem. And well, it has its problems with it. I mean, a lot of people are saying ecological disaster, rehabilitation of people, acquiring the land, a big issue and cost. The 2018 cost was $123 billion. So, it's huge. If you do it with military precision, with a drive, I think it can be achieved. If there is, a lot of writers will say there are many other ways of doing it, recharge the groundwater, I mean. Conserve rainwater. Conserve rainwater, rainwater harvesting. Yes. So, I think this plan, although a lot of people don't know, there are about eight or about 10 such river interlinking projects already functional in our country. The first one started in 1890 in the Periyar River to…

Sandeep Unnithan: Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Major General Akash Kaushik : Yeah, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Then, you know, the Delagu Ganga, which provides the Krishna waters to Chennai. The Sardar Sarovar Dam, which links the Narmada and the Sabarmati. There is the Sujulam Spreading Canal, which is filling 210 lakes and dams. There's another one called the Saurashtra Narmada Avataran Irrigation, which is filling 115. So yes, successful projects. There are examples. We can keep denying the fact that it shouldn't happen. And, you know, some writers will tell you or people who study the subject say rainwater, which spreads out, is not really wastewater. You can argue both sides. I personally feel that this inter-Indian, inter-river linking project needs to be looked at and studied and done with speed and with, you know, military precision. Yes, there will be political issues. There will be the rehabilitation of people, from 580,000 people to a couple of million people. The figures vary among different writers. According to the alarmist writers, it is two million people. Not so alarmist writers, it's 580,000. Yes, there will be. But I think if we want to go into the future and become an economy, the inter-river linking plan is feasible, essential to some extent, yes. If there is another better solution, I haven't come across one. I mean, we started making every home into a rainwater harvesting system. It's too diverse to track, to hold. I can't hold you accountable for not practising rainwater harvesting, not recharging the well, etc., etc. It's problematic. Is it a good idea? Yes, it's a great idea. Should it be done? Yes, it should be done. Other things, such as conserving water and reducing pollution. I mean, look at us. I told you about sanitation. All our rivers, 70% of our rivers, you can't drink that water. We have to progress on all fronts. So, the first project of the Ken Betwa Link is already underway. It should be completed by 2030. Let's look at it as a pilot project. If it succeeds, if it helps the people, if it improves the groundwater restoration, and it will. I mean, the inter-river linking project is going to make your groundwater, bring it back to sustainable levels much faster than anything else. This one is going to get, I think, 2.5 million hectares into arable land. Yes, there will be a Panna project. Panna Tiger Reserve, 8% of that land is going to get inundated. Some 30 to 40 villages will have to be shifted. It's the cost of development. You do it for roads. You do it for cities. I was talking with one of your people who works with you, and he mentioned that in the NCR region, people have been relocated because they can't farm anymore. Salinity has increased so much. So, people used to farm on the waters of the Yamuna. They have relocated. So yeah, development will always have its cost. Can we mitigate those costs? Can we reduce the cost? Yes, we can. And I think this dispensation is looking at it seriously. Will there be some gaps? It's a huge project. Yes, there will be. I think all of us need to look at it and put our efforts behind it in whichever way we can. And I think with that, I think we will achieve the prosperity that we want. Otherwise, it's always all about a blame game. Who's going to do it?

Sandeep Unnithan: So, what are the two or three top policy bottlenecks that you would say that we can quite easily overcome without moving mountains?

Major General Akash Kaushik : Yes, you can. One must understand that in our country, 90% of the freshwater is used by agriculture. So, if you want to change the concept, I mean, the availability of water, we have to go and tackle how we do agriculture. I mean, we've all been in our villages. We have 80 to 90% have seen. It's called flood agriculture. You flood your field, okay? And it's the worst way of irrigating your field. Most unscientific. Yes, sir. And it uses the most water. Drip irrigation uses 90% less water than flood irrigation. And a sprinkler system is 60, 70% somewhere in, you save 60, 70%. It's expensive. So, do we need to help our farmers change? A, first, help our farmers change the way we crop. That is how we irrigate. And the government needs to step in a large way in this to help them get better. So you will reduce the footprint of agricultural water. Then, sir, we are farming incorrectly. We grow the most water-hungry crops in the driest states. Yeah, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra. We grow rice, wheat, and sugarcane. The most water-hungry crops. Where do we have the most water? In East India. So why are we not growing it there? Because MSP. There's no MSP there. So spread the MSP. We got to incentivise, we got to solarise this thing. So, the first thing we need to tackle, the most important thing, which will have its immediate effect, is agriculture. Second, we discussed it earlier: education. Right now, we have no dedicated infrastructure or university for water. A water university, Terry is there, which deals with such things. But I think each of our zones, let's say East India, Northern and Western India, Central India, Central India, Plateau India or Southern India, you need five such universities which are graduating people who work on irrigation, sanitation, sewage treatment, hydropower, etc, etc. And at grassroot levels, at the Tehsildar, Patwari, those levels, you should put a mandatory thing that if you're dealing with water, so if an educated guy is there, he knows the importance of repairing the canal, he knows how to do it, he's been taught how to do it. That's the second thing. And the third thing that we need to look at immediately is going to be sanitation. Because sanitation finally affects the water availability. Because, as I said, we are moving into an urban country. None of us is going to be spared by this because a billion people will live in cities by 2050. We will create something like 2 billion litres of sewage every day, of which, at current, even if we grow current today, we treat 28% of our sewage. If we continue growing and treat 28% incrementally, somewhere nearly a billion and a half litres of sewage will enter your waterways, rivers. If today, with 50,000 million litres of sewage entering our rivers, we are 70% not able to use 70% of the water. Imagine if three times that sewage comes into the same rivers, so you will have no water to use. You will have no water to use. If you don't tackle the urban sanitation problem, connect everybody to it, treat it, and it's not undoable. You don't need only the government in Rajkot, for example. Some of the areas that they've done, they've taken 150 hectares that are being treated, are agriculturally found by wastewater. So, what they do is, so it's both ways. So, this is recycled water. So, what not only recycle, but they do is, so this company is taking your water, they come to your apartment block, and they honeysuckle out your sewage. If they sell you untreated water, they charge you 150 to 200 bucks an acre. And if they give you treated water, they charge you 2000 rupees an acre. But this water is dense in minerals and nutrients. So somewhere we need to involve the private industry, big people who can help you manage the sanitation problem. If the government is going to do it alone, it doesn't have the funds, doesn't have the wherewithal, we will see a huge bottleneck. And you have to start today. You have to invest, invest, invest in this thing. Otherwise, your cities will become unlivable. And consequently, your waterways will become unusable. Except for putting a boat on, you will not be able to use it. And it will have its effects on you, me, everybody, because these waters will go into your groundwater, will go into your agriculture, will go into your foodstuffs. So, it's a cycle that we need to break now. It's a cycle that we need to break. And as you said, we need to do it with military-like precision. And who better than you, General Kaushik, to talk about this? Such a fascinating conversation. You've not only outlined the problem, you've given us the macro, you've also gone to the micro. You've given us some great solutions. And I really hope that anyone who's watching it out there, policymakers should take note of this. These are very, very serious problems that General Kaushik has outlined. I normally talk about national security, but here is a topic that affects every one of us, and it's water security. And that affects every single person. That has a bearing on national security, as well as General Kaushik's new book on India's water security brings out. I want to thank you very much for joining me here today. And thank you for your time and for your thoughts.

Major General Akash Kaushik : Thank you, Sandeep. It was great being here. And I hope we can collaborate on many such topics in the future.

Sandeep Unnithan: Thank you, sir. Thank you very much.

Watch the full podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERTFMlsOZ14.

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