In 2026, India faces five countries which challenge its rise. Some like China and Pakistan have been threats since the 1960s— India has fought one border war with China and four wars with Pakistan. Some countries like Turkiye are unexpected new challenges, as are the United States, India’s strategic partner for over a decade, but which has become transactional and unpredictable under President Donald Trump. Bangladesh, a fifth country, is another unpredictable challenger, ironic considering India created Bangladesh through force of arms on December 16, 1971. Arranged in reverse order are the 5 :

Threat Number 5: Turkiye

During Operation Sindoor, Turkiye supplied Pakistan with drones which attacked and killed Indian civilians. This, after India was among the first countries to provide aid to Ankara during an earthquake in 2023. Turkiye opposes India as it battles to create a neo- Ottoman Empire in West Asia. Turkiye is a NATO member and even wanted to join the European Union. But ever since Recep Tayyip  Erdogan came into power, Turkey has changed colours and stepped up its interference in the Middle East. It's interfering far too much in Middle East affairs. India is pushing to create the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) linking the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Greece. But Turkey is opposed to the IMEC, which bypasses it completely. Turkiye has seen itself as the gateway to Europe, the bridge straddling the Oriental with the Occidental. Turkiye is also battling with Iran and Saudi Arabia for the leadership of the Islamic world. It continues to remain a challenge for India through 2026.  

Threat Number 4: Bangladesh

Bangladesh presents an irritating but not a direct threat to India. Earlier, under Sheikh Hasina, India had good relations with Bangladesh for 15 years. On 5th August 2024, when the coup happened against Sheikh Hasina, the character was changed completely. Whether Tariq Rehman comes up or Jamaat comes up or NCP comes up or in some combination, who comes up, the pulls and pressures in Bangladesh and the way things are coming out of Bangladesh today, is that this country has changed its character completely. It has gone back to its origins. In the 54 years since the creation of Bangladesh, the 15 years under Sheikh Hasina were an exception.

After Sheikh Mujib’s assassination in 1975, India-Bangladesh ties have gone downhill. It moved away from India, more towards China, and Islamisation was on the rise. It was only when Sheikh Hasina came that things got reversed. The future will see Bangladesh drifting more towards Islam, away from its Bengali cultural identity. How does Bangladesh threaten India? It gives a playground for the USA, China, ISI, Pakistan, and Turkey to act.  Bangladesh is a football field. While India can look at it as a minefield, it's also a football field where these four countries are playing geopolitical football. 

Threat Number 3: USA

India and the US have been global strategic partners since 2005, when they announced the India-US civil-military deal. However, in 2025, exactly two decades later, the wheels seem to be coming off the relationship. The US has imposed 50 per cent tariffs on India, the highest in the world. 

Ironically, this has happened under the watch of President Donald Trump’s first year in office, in his second term. Geopolitical analyst Francis Fukuyama believes the hostility stems from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s refusal to endorse Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize for supposedly mediating an end to the India-Pakistan conflict during Operation Sindoor. (India denies the US played any role in ending the 88-hour conflict with Pakistan between May 7-10).

Yet, the relationship with the US is something which cannot be wished away for two reasons. One, both countries are invested inthe India-US defence relationship. India has purchased over 20 billion dollars worth of defence equipment from the US and holds more exercises with the US than it does with any other country.

Second, the Indian diaspora is too invested in the USA. And America Incorporated will be too invested in India. The kind of investments which will come into India.

India has seen US-sponsored instability in Bangladesh. Pakistan is closer to the US than at any time in the last decade. 

India is not prepared to toe America's line as far as Russia or China are concerned. America wants an ally in the mould of Japan and Taiwan. 

The US, meanwhile, is turning the screws on India. Take, for instance, the GE F404 engines, which are meant to power the Tejas aircraft, which are being supplied in a trickle, seriously impacting India’s ability to field its own indigenous fighters. Hence, the US has proved itself to be an unreliable partner.

Threat Number 2: China

China is India’s biggest strategic challenge. Taiwan has 200 kilometres of water between it and China; India has China sitting on over 3000 kilometres of a disputed Himalayan boundary. For the first time in its history, India has to deal with a superpower at its doorstep. 

A thaw with Beijing, which began in 2024, took effect in 2025. Direct flights between the two countries have started, and border trade, which was shut after the 2020 standoff in Ladakh, might resume soon. Yet, India’s loss of trust prevents the relationship with China from taking off. 

China itself is facing problems, like its economy is contracting and its population is ageing. Their military is in shambles, wrecked by corruption and the sacking of hundreds of bureaucrats and generals. And their equipment is malfunctioning, huge. We just saw that in Cambodia. In Operation Sindoor, the Chinese equipment used by Pakistan failed.

Threat Number 1: Pakistan

Pakistan is the number one threat. Field Marshal Asim Munir, the newly anointed Chief of Defence Forces, is the epitome of being toxic and dangerous. 50 per cent of Pakistan is already below the poverty line, and 33 per cent of them suffer from psychological illness. India is dealing with a chaotic nation, a neurotic nation. Munir knows this. Addressing the Pakistani diaspora in the US, he called Pakistan a dump truck and India a shiny Ferrari. Pakistan is stoking anti-India fervour. There are other issues, like India being the number one source of all their water, the Indus River.  Asim Munir is raising money by sending the Pakistan Army into Gaza. He plans to sell arms to Libya, doing the bidding of powerful Middle Eastern nations and the US. Pakistan, thus, is India’s most dangerous opponent. The problem, no other country can disturb your population the way Pakistan does.

(Based on a podcast “India’s Minefield 2026” between Lt General PR Shankar and Sandeep Unnithan) 

Watch the full podcast:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWp5sOzJ0N8&t=65s

Chakra Desk

Chakra News is a specialised digital media platform committed to in-depth coverage of India’s defence, national security, geopolitics, and critical technologies.