Introduction

Israel’s election ended without a clear winner. Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, with 53 seats nor Gadi Eisenkot’s, with 48 seats, reached the magic number of 61 or more to form the next government. But the Arab parties, running under the Joint List and the United List, or Ra’am, have together won a historic 19 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

 This is the largest Arab representation in Israeli history, up from 10 seats presently held and above the 15 seats they won in 2020. With 19 seats the Arab parties have emerged as this election’s surprise upset, and possibly kingmakers.

 The historic surge in Arab voter turnout has placed Israel’s Arab-majority parties in a position to determine the next government, putting the Zionist opposition’s longstanding refusal to rely on their support to a potentially decisive test.

The Arab Vote

  Probably the most important phenomenon of this election is the rise and the revival of the Arab vote,” Daniel Shek, a former Israeli Ambassador has said. “The statement is clear: You cannot disregard such a large portion of the electorate in the calculations for Israeli politics.”  Though both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have rejected the idea of partnering with them, citing a lack of shared values.

Analysts at the Israel Democracy Institute once described the long slide in Arab turnout in Israeli general elections as seemingly irreversible: from about 75 percent in 1999 to 44.6 percent in 2021, then 53.2 percent in 2022. This week, the turnout was about 80 percent, above the national figure of 77.7 percent; a number that is significant across the Israeli political scene, especially since Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about a fifth of Israel’s population.

Several factors explain this popular mobilization. The first is anger at Netanyahu’s far-right government, which is perceived as ideologically anti-Arab, with far-right racist ministers openly inciting against their community. In a September Israel Democracy Institute poll, 54 percent of Palestinian citizens of Israel named rising crime their top voting issue.

The second factor is same-day backlash. Netanyahu spent Election Day fearmongering and warning that Palestinian citizens of Israel were flooding polling stations and accused them of trying to steal the election. Media reports say Likud and Religious Zionism sent nearly 2,000 activists to Arab polling places, which Arab parties say was meant to scare voters.

The third possible factor is the efforts especially by right-of-centre parties and the left, to get rid of Netanyahu after October 2023 and what followed. Many Palestinian citizens of Israel blame Netanyahu, for the atrocities committed in Gaza and the wave of terror being carried out in the West Bank.

 Horse Trading

While neither Zionist camp expected the Arab parties to do so well, their win has blocked Netanyahu’s path to forming a government on his own. His bloc is eight seats short of 61, Eisenkot’s is thirteen short. High Arab turnout denied both a majority.

From now on it will be horse-trading a ritual, not unusual in Israeli politics. Eisenkot has three likely routes. First, he can invite Arab parties into his government, which is unlikely as his allies, namely Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett, have ruled out direct Arab participation.

The second possible route is a quid-pro-quo deal in which Arab parties back him from outside, providing parliamentary support. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen has offered exactly that to any government seeking to oust Netanyahu. At the same time, Ra’am’s Mansour Abbas wants a real partnership and says he is talking to both blocs.

A third route, which is reportedly backed by the Donald Trump administration, is a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. It is possible on paper, but question marks remain about whether everyone involved would accept it, especially the opposition bloc, where Eisenkot and Liberman have vowed not to serve under Netanyahu under any circumstances.

For an Arab party to join an Israeli government, there is precedent. In 2021, Abbas signed a coalition deal with Bennett and Yair Lapid worth billions of dollars for the Arab community, which also led to the recognition of several Bedouin villages. Incidentally the Standing Together group has said that rallies will be held across Israel to support a Jewish-Arab government by the so-called change bloc. “The Jewish-Arab majority that voted for change must also be reflected in the next government. Now is not the time to abandon our partnership, but to turn it into a political force that changes reality,” the  organiser’s have  said.

For Netanyahu, any partnership between Eisenkot and the Palestinian citizens of Israel means derailment of his chances and his political comeback. He has dismissed any partnership with Arab parties as treasonous and said a government working with them would endanger Israel.

On 28 October, Likud also claimed the Arab parties stole the election and demanded an investigation into vote rigging in Arab polling stations, but these are allegations.

    While his rivals try to resolve their differences, Netanyahu can use his political connections, maintain his partners' loyalty, and examine who in the opposing camp might prefer a compromise to another election. Some analysts also believe Netanyahu will try to force a new election if his efforts to form a new government fail.

Conclusion

The surprise of this election is that Palestinian citizens of Israel showed up to vote in historic numbers. The test now is to see what they can get for it. There is also an irony.  Arabs have voted in a democratic election in Jewish Israel but in most Arab countries there is no voting.

 Yet while the Arab parties have signaled their willingness to help bring about a change of government, Eisenkot and several of his prospective coalition partners would have to reverse their pledges not to rely on Arab lawmakers to form a government. As without the Arab parties’ support, the opposition cannot secure a parliamentary majority.

 For the present Netanyahu is likely to remain in office without a majority, while Eisenkot must overcome opposition divisions to form a government or face another election. The fact is that anyone looking to form a government will need to bring partners willing to sit together to the table.

Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh, VSM (Retired)

Major General Jagatbir Singh is an Armoured Corps Officer who commanded the First Armoured Division. He served in varied terrains and tenanted important command, staff and instructional appointments including a UN Peace Keeping Mission in Iraq and Kuwait. He co-authored ‘Armour 1971’ and edited ‘Valour and Honour’.